Overachievers and Underachievers (part 1)

There is an universal appeal to the story of the triumphant underdog.  Rocky beating Apollo Creed in the rematch.  The Miracle on Ice.  The Rumble in the Jungle.  Little Ms. Sunshine.  Something inherently resonates within us while watching individuals achieve more than what was though possible.  Maybe because it gives us hope.  Hope that one day we can become the people we so desperately want become.  Achieve what we so fervently desire, yet are too afraid to pursue.  Because the people on the television screen have done it, everything suddenly seems to enter into the realm of possibility.

However, there exists an urge on the opposite end of the spectrum.  The undeniably perverse inclination to beat up on the underachiever.  Those who seem to have all the talent in the world, yet fail to reach the fan’s projected veil of expectations.  Ryan Leaf.  The 2007 Patriots.  The 2010-11 Miami Heat.  That god-awful Alexander movie with Colin Ferrell.  We see a bunch of amazing individual components and assume they should make up a successful whole, but many times this is not the case.  And, just as we lift Rocky onto our shoulders when he is victorious, we throw Tiger Woods into the dirt once he stops winning majors.  And, for some reason, the majority of us (myself included) find both acts to be equally entertaining.  It's not that I want to rub salt in Tiger's wounds, it's that I have to.  

And today I will be doing the equivalent with baseball teams.  Not because I want to.  Because I have to.   

In a conversation with my buddy Paul the other day, he brought up the fact that it is possible that the neither the 2010 or 2012 Giants have a Hall of Famer.  At first, I thought this was preposterous, but after looking at the roster, this seems like a legitimate possibility.  Beyond the outside chance of a Tim Lincecum resurgence, Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner are the only real contenders for the Hall.  And that is assuming about 15 more years of production at their current paces.  A hefty assumption to say the least.  This got me thinking: what are the worst teams to win the World Series in recent years?  And, oppositely, what are the best teams not to win it all?  

When I use terms like “worst” teams or “best” teams, I am referring to their relative level of talent on paper.  That is, in the sense of a Vegas oddsmaker picking teams to win the World Series.  In this sense, I’m not calling the 2010 Giants a “bad” team, but rather an “unlikely” team.  And, oppositely, when I say “good” team, I am not referring to the team that wins the most games, but rather the roster with the most perceived talent.  That's is why the 2001 Mariners team that won 116 games but didn’t win the World Series is a glaring omission from this list.  They were a team that came out of nowhere to set the single season wins record, not a Goliath tooled with for the specific purpose of breaking all-time records.  Conversely, this is also why the 2006 Cardinals (who won the Series with only 83 regular season wins, but a relatively stacked roster) aren’t included either.  

Also, when delineating “definite Hall of Famers” from “Borderline Hall of Famers,” I am choosing purely from a production standpoint to determine the depth of the roster.  If you put up Hall of Fame numbers, you added Hall of Fame value to your team.  Therefore, I’m not going to hold it against a team if they have a bunch of dudes who were obvious steroid users.  Also, I didn’t want to spend all day doing this, so I limited the list to past 25 years.

The Most Stacked Rosters Not To Win a Ring in the Past 25 Years

Honorable Mention:

1997 Seattle Mariners, 90-72 

Definite Hall of Fame Caliber: (3) Randy Johnson, Ken Griffey Jr., Alex Rodriguez

Borderline Hall of Fame Caliber: (2) Edgar Martinez, Raul Ibanez (if he plays until he’s 50.  Which is looking more and more possible)

Players with 3.0+ WAR: (8) Jay Buhner, Ken Griffey Jr., Edgar Martinez, Alex Rodriguez, Dan Wilson, Jeff Fassero, Randy Johnson, Jamie Moyer

Players with 6.0+ WAR: (3) Griffey, Martinez, Johnson

It is a beautiful thing when fans get to see legends play alongside one another.  And there are two ways in which this happens:  (a) in the forced, mostly much symbolic way, where prestigious older players force their way on to teams with other prestigious players (like when the Lakers signed old-ass Malone and old-ass Gary Payton).  Or (b)  in the organic way, when the stars align and greatness converges.  

This Mariners team was one one of those beautifully organic occurrences.  It was brief, but it was a joy to behold as the careers of Arod, Griffey, and Randy Johnson all crossed over with one another.  All in various stages of their prime.  Three of the best players that I have ever had the pleasure to witness.  All on the field at the same time.  This team had a 21 year-old Arod, fresh off of the greatest 20 year-old season by anyone not named Gooden or Trout.  They also had prime Junior, the one who was well on his way in becoming baseball's G.O.A.T.  And he hit 56 bombs and drove in 147 runs this year.  And, although Randy had back problems for all of '96, he came back better than ever in '97, going 20-4 with a 2.28 ERA.  

And this team had a lot of talent outside of the Big Three.  Jay Buhner dropped 40 dingers.  Edgar Martinez hit .330 with a clinically insane .456 OBP.  Jamie Moyer went 17-5 with a 3.86.  Jeff Fassero (wow, haven't heard that name in a minute) went 16-9 with a 3.61.  Fucking Paul Sorrento hit 31 homers.  Even Joey Cora hit .300.  This team had World Series written all over it.  And they would have been a lock for my top five most disappointing teams if it had not been for the most atrocious bullpen I’ve ever seen.  

Here were their first five guys out of the ‘pen:

Name	G	ERA	Saves	IP	H	HR	BB	WHIP	WAR
Charlton	71	7.27	14	69.1	89	7	47	1.962	-2.5
Ayala	71	3.82	8	96.2	91	14	41	1.366	1.2
Wells	46	5.75	2	67.1	88	11	18	1.574	-0.7
Sanders	33	6.47	2	65.1	73	16	38	1.699	-0.8
McCarthy	37	5.46	0	29.2	26	4	16	1.416	-0.3

Norm Charlton...never in all my years of stat-hacking have I come across a -2.5 WAR by a relief pitcher, and, oh my, am I giddy to have finally found one (it’s ok, Norm, you will be redeemed once we get to the most surprising World Series winners).  

And thank god for Bobby Ayala.  If it wasn’t for him, this team may have never gotten through a game.  

The Top Five:

(5) 1995 Cleveland Indians, 100-44

Definite Hall of Fame Caliber: (5) Omar Vizquel, Jim Thome, Eddie Murray, Dave Winfield, Manny Ramirez

Borderline Hall of Fame Caliber: (3) Albert Belle, Orel Hershiser, Kenny Lofton

Players with 3.0+ WAR: (7) Albert Belle, Jim Thome, Kenny Lofton, Orel Hershiser, Dennis Martinez, Jose Mesa, Chad Ogea

Players with 6.0+ WAR: (1) Albert Belle

The fact that the Indians didn’t win a World Series in the 90s in one of the all-time mysteries.  There were two phases of these teams: (1) The version that could rake and kinda pitch, and (2) the one that could rake so hard that pitching was pretty much became an afterthought.  This was version (1), the one that actually had a few decent pitchers.  

First, note that the strike cut into the beginning of this season and 18 games were cut off the schedule.  This makes the 100 games that the ’95 Indians won even more impressive.  

Second, this was when Albert Belle was good.  Really good.  He hit 50 bombs and 52 doubles.  In fact, if was wasn’t such a perpetually annoying person, we would have walked away with the MVP this season (side note:  the more and more I research, the more and more apparent it becomes that personality plays into writer’s voting process, which is both dumb and irritating).  Instead, a slightly less annoying Mo Vaughn took it home (Vaughn had a 4.3 WAR, Belle had a 6.94 WAR - a hilariously bad MVP vote).  

Third, besides Belle, the rest of the lineup was nasty.  This was the last season that Eddie Murray was relevant and he hit .323 with 21 homers.  Furthermore, this was back when people had really high hopes for Carlos Baerga (.314, 90 RBI).  Toss in a 24 year-old third baseman named Jim Thome (.314, 25 homers, 73 RBI), a 23 year-old ManRam (.308, 31 homers, 107 RBI), and a prime Kenny Lofton (.310, 54 SB), and you have one of the scariest lineups in recent memory.  And hey!  Look who it is!  Good ‘ol Paul Sorrento chipped in another 25 homers at first base (who is this guy?  Is he good?  I don't remember him from Ken Griffey Jr Baseball, but he seems like he's pretty good...).  

Lastly, the pitching was decent enough to hold its own.  Obviously, when you have run-support like this, pitching becomes a much easier task (as illuminated by Charles Nagy’s 16-6 record with a 4.55 ERA).  However, a 41 year-old Dennis Martinez was excellent (12-5, 3.08) and a 36 year-old Orel Hershiser was solid (16-6, 3.87).  And the back-end of the bullpen may have been the best in the majors, with Eric Plunk (2.67, 64 IP, 71 Ks), Julian Tavarez (10-2, 2.44), and Jose Mesa (1.13, 64 IP, 58 Ks, 46 SV - came in 4th in the MVP voting).

Unfortunately, like every Indian’s teams since 1948, they didn’t win the World Series, losing in six games to the pitching-heavy Atlanta Braves.  

And, I'm sorry Indian's fans, but it's not over yet.

(4) 2005 New York Yankees, 95-67

Definite Hall of Fame Caliber: (4) Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Randy Johnson, Alex Rodriguez

Borderline Hall of Fame Caliber: (6) Jorge Posada, Robinson Cano, Bernie Williams, Gary Sheffield, Jason Giambi, Mike Mussina

Players with 3.0+ WAR: (11) Giambi, Jeter, Matsui, Posada, Rodriguez, Sheffield,  Shawn Chacon, Tom Gordon, Johnson, Mussina, Rivera

Players with 6.0+ WAR: (1) Rodriguez

If all the writers had blacked-out during the various steroid scandals, this team featured somewhere between 6 and 10 Hall of Famers.  Furthermore, 11 players with a 3.0+ WAR should guarantee a World Series ring.  

A year removed from the historic 3-0 playoff implosion against the Red Sox, everyone figured that the Yankees would be coming back for blood.  Their perceived weakness was pitching, so, in typical Yankee’s fashion, they went out and got Carl Pavano, Jaret Wright, and Randy Johnson.  Moreover, their new young superstar, Robinson Cano, was making his transition into starting full-time and Jason Giambi was healthy for the first time since ’03 (both huge improvements over Miguel Cairo and Tony Clark).  So the perception was that the lineup was going to be much improved as well.  

Unfortunately, the entire pitching staff was a disaster.  The Kevin Brown experiment officially entered itself into the record books as one of the all-time worst contracts (2 years, $32 million for 35 starts of garbage).  And Carl Pavano’s contract joined in as well, giving Brown's a run for its money (4 years, $40 million for 26 starts of garbage).  Furthermore, Mussina underachieved and Randy began to look his 41 years of age.   

However, even with all of the pitching woes, the endless depth of the offense was still good enough to carry the team.  Arod had his second MVP season.  Cano established himself as the future of the franchise.  Giambi was relevant again (32 homers).  Sheffield had a monster season (.291, 34 homers, 123 RBI.  And Jeter played like Jeter.  Overall, the offense was 2nd in the league in runs scored, hits, homers, batting average, OBP, and OPS.  And, in turn, the team won the AL East.  But, the curse of the Arod MVP struck again, and the immediately lost to the vastly inferior Angels in the ALDS. 

(3) 1999 Cleveland Indians, 97-65

Definite Hall of Fame Caliber: (4) Jim Thome, Roberto Alomar, Omar Vizquel, Manny Ramirez

Borderline Hall of Fame Caliber: Kenny Lofton, 

Players with 3.0+ WAR: (8) David Justice, Kenny Lofton, Jim Thome, Dave Burba, Bartolo Colon, Roberto Alomar, Manny Ramirez, Omar Vizquel

Players with 6.0+ WAR: (3) Alomar, Ramriez, Vizquel

This is part (2) of the 90s Indians: the version that would straight slaughter-rule you into submission.  However, they won fewer games and had less definite Hall of Famers than the ’95 team, how are they ranked as a bigger disappointment? 

First off, two of the “definite Hall of Famers” (Eddie Murray and Dave Winfield) from the ’95 were in twilights of their careers by that season, and did not contribute like the monsters they once were.  On the other hand, the Hall of Famer that was added to this team, Roberto Alomar, had the best season of his career in ’99 and came in 3rd in the MVP voting.  Moreover, the three remaining Hall of Famers from the '95 team had all entered into their primes by ’99 as well:

Vizquel had the best season of his career (.333, 191 hits, 42 SB), coupling with Alomar for arguably the greatest middle infield ever assembled.  

Manny Ramirez also had the best season of his career (.333, .442 OBP, 44 HR, 165 RBI), yet somehow came in 4th place in the MVP voting (the fact that Pudge Rodriguez won the MVP in ’99 was an absolute travesty -  if you look back at the numbers, he probably should have came in 5th or 6th - the joke of the MVP award continues). 

Jim Thome chipped in a productive year with 33 bombs, 108 RBI, and a .426 OBP.

And the supporting actors did their part as well: Lofton was solid (.301, .405 OBP, 110 runs).  David Justice had 21 homers and a .413 OBP.  And a relatively unknown utility man named Richie Sexon hit 31 homers with 116 RBI.  Overall, this squad had a horrifying .373 OBP and .840 OPS.  To put that in perspective, the team with the highest OBP and OPS this season, the Detroit Tigers, is at .347 and .788, respectively.  God, how freaking awesome was the steroid era?

Even though this team had hitting numbers like a professional slow-pitch soft ball team, and three Hall of Famers in the midst of their greatest season, the Indians didn’t get past the first round of the playoffs because of their relatively weak pitching staff.  The 26 year-old "mini-Bartolo" was a solid pitcher and Dave Burba was ok, but they had no one else.  The Indians won the first two games of the ALDS against the Red Sox, and then lost the next three in a row.  Allowing a total of 44 runs in Games 3-5, including 23 in Game 4. 

I'm sorry Indians, I don't know if you will ever win a World Series.  Or ever have another team this awesome.  But I'll never forget how amazing you were in Ken Griffey Jr Baseball.

(2) 1990 Oakland A’s, 103-59

Definite Hall of Fame Caliber: (3) Rickey Henderson, Mark McGwire, Dennis Eckersley

Borderline Hall of Fame Caliber: (2) Jose Canseco, Dave Stewart

Players with 3.0+ WAR: (8) Dave Henderson, Rickey Henderson, McGwire, Canseco, Walt Weiss, Stewart, Eckersley, Bob Welch

Players with 6.0+ WAR: (1) Rickey Henderson

The A’s made the World Series in ’88 and lost, and made it again in ’89 and won.  Thus, as the team stepped onto the field in ’90, the expectations were World Series or bust.  

And, in the regular season, the team didn’t disappoint.  Rickey Henderson had the best year of his career and won his first and only MVP award.  The Bash Brothers combined for 76 home runs.  And, the perennially slick-fielding Walt Weiss put up a stupidly high 2.7 dWAR.  

And, on the mound, they A’s had found themselves a two-headed monster in the form of Dave Stewart and Bob Welch.  For Stewart, being at the top of the game had become old hat.  His 22 wins in 1990 would mark his fourth consecutive season hitting the 20 win plateau.  

For Welsh, however, “brilliance” had never been an adjective used to describe his game.  In 1990, he was 33 years-old and entering into his 13 season in the Majors.  He had only been named to one All Star team and never won more than 17 games in a year.  He had been great for the A’s in the two seasons prior, and had some very solid years with the Dodgers before that, but no one could have predicted the season he had in 1990.  Undoubtedly, it is one of the most peculiar stat lines that I have ever encountered:

G	W	L	ERA	IP	H	BB	SO	WHIP	WAR
35	27	6	2.95	238.0	214	77	127	1.223	3.0

For this Herculean effort, Welch won the Cy Young.  However, when you dig deeper into the stats, this year looks like more and more of an outlier.  And seems more and more impossible.  First of all, this was essentially the last relevant year of Welch’s career.  He would never again even eclipse 12 wins after 1990.  Furthermore, in terms of WAR, this is Welch’s eighth best season.  On top of that, I do not understand how it’s possible to get 33 decisions in only 35 starts.  All in all, I believe this to be one of the most improbable stat lines ever to occur in Major League Baseball.  If you block out the wins column, it looks like another really good, but not spectacular, Bob Welsh season.  But, once you look at the 27 wins (a number no pitcher has reached since), suddenly it jumps into the conversation of one of the all-time great seasons. 

The A’s made it to the World Series for the third time in a row in 1990.  They were set to face the Cincinnati Reds, and were massively favored.  It seemed as if they were sitting on the precipice of another Athletics dynasty, akin to the Philadelphia teams from 1929-31 or the Catfish Hunter/Reggie Jackson teams from the early 70s.  However, after they were shockingly swept by the Reds, the team began to crumble to pieces.

Both Dave Stewart’s and Bob Welch’s careers hit a wall.  Thus, the heart of the pitching staff was gone.  The honeymoon period of Rickey’s return to Oakland eventually wore off and the rest of his career was a contemptuous back-and-forth between Oakland and various other teams.  Canseco was gone to Texas by ’92.  McGwire was injury-plagued for most of the early 90s, until his massive resurgence (figuratively and literally) in the mid-to-late 90s brought him back into the spotlight as baseball's preeminent slugger.  However, most of this success was with the Cardinals.  The team that their beloved manager, Tony LaRussa, also left for.  

(1) 1998 Atlanta Braves, 106-56

Definite Hall of Fame Caliber: (4) Chipper Jones, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz

Borderline Hall of Fame Caliber: (2) Andres Galarraga, Andruw Jones (ok, really borderline)

Players with 3.0+ WAR: (7) Andres Galarraga, Andruw Jones, Chipper Jones, Javy Lopez, Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux, John Smoltz

Players with 6.0+ WAR: (4) Jones, Jones, Maddux, Glavine

For dramatic effect, I’ll repeat that fact: four players with a 6.0+ WAR.  Absolutely sickening.  Maddux, Chipper, and Andruw all had higher WARs than the MVP, Sammy Sosa, this season.  Oh, and that other slouch, Tom Glavine?  He won the Cy Young.  

In case you haven’t seen this before, this was what this team was known for:

Name	W	L	ERA	IP	H	BB	SO	WHIP
Maddux	18	9	2.22	251.0	201	45	204	0.980
Glavine	20	6	2.47	229.1	202	74	157	1.203
Smoltz	17	3	2.90	167.2	145	44	173	1.127
Neagle	16	11	3.55	210.1	196	60	165	1.217
Millwood	17	8	4.08	174.1	175	56	163	1.325

For my money, this the best 1 through 5 ever assembled in the modern era of pitching.  And it’s why Leo Mazzone is my pick for best pitching coach of all time (with Dave Duncan nipping at his heels).   When your number five is a 23 year-old Kevin Millwood, the expectations become dynasty or bust.  However, when you tack on a lineup that features Galarraga (who managed to get ahold of the really high-quality roids and hit 44 bombs that year), Andruw Jones (who, at the time, looked like the next Willie Mays, as his 3.9 dWAR would suggest), and Chipper Jones (the best third baseman of the generation), the question should not be whether or not you win multiple World Series rings, it’s how many in a row are you going to win.  This team had everything short of "The Decision."  Not six, not seven, not eight...

The Braves won it all in ’96, but they shockingly never managed to win another one with this roster.   They had it all: a solid lineup, great defense, and a pitching staff that was statistical pornography.  They won their division so many years in a row that their pathetic excuse for fans stopped selling out playoffs games.  If it wasn't a World Series, they didn't care.

This team should have been a dynasty.  They should have been playing the Yankees in the World Series every season.  Yet they lost in six games to the Padres in '98, a team that couldn’t hold a candle up to the Braves talent-wise.  And, sadly, that is the legacy of the Brave’s teams from ’97-’05: really great teams that could never seem to seal the deal.   

(coming soon: the top five worst teams to win it all in the past 25 years)