Tuesday, August 6, 2013

Major League Baseball’s First Annual Finance Awards


          Welcome to the Inaugural MLB Finance Awards!  The idea for this prestigious award show was conceived when I recently noticed that the Los Angeles Dodgers went from a $95 million payroll last season to a $216 million payroll this season, yet are only projected to win one additional game.  I thought to myself, this has to be the most fiscally irresponsible team of the last decade.  And then I thought, oh fuck, I forgot about every Yankees team of the past decade.  But I had to know for certain.  So, being the unbelievably not-nerdy kind of guy that I am, I created a spreadsheet with most irresponsible franchises and the most frugal franchises of the past decade.  And what I found shocked me. 


Team Awards


Most Likely to Be Featured in a Movie With Charlie Sheen: 

‘06 Florida Marlins

$192,000 per win.  Ladies and Gentlemen, this is a record akin to Cy Young’s 511 wins, or Ricky Henderson’s 1406 stolen bases, or the amount of sweat that constantly pours from Kevin Youkilis’s bald head, in that, it probably will never be broken.  Their team payroll of $14.9 million seems like a typo when you’re scrolling through years of salary data.  But, if you look at their players salary-by-salary, you realize it’s not.  Alone, Dontrelle Willis’s (relatively paltry) $4.35 million salary took up almost 30% of the overall payroll.  This would be the Yankee equivalent of Arod making $70 million a year.  To put that in perspective, here are Yankee’s players who made more money than everyone on the Marlin’s roster whose names weren’t Dontrelle Willis in ’06:

Johnny Damon

Jason Giambi

Randy Johnson

Hideki Matsui

Mike Mussina

Jorge Posada

Alex Rodriguez

Gary Sheffield

Derek Jeter


Yet, despite all of this, this Marlins team managed to squeeze out 78 wins.  Joe Girardi must have lost ten years off his life trying to negotiate for more free agents in the offseason.  No wonder he went to the Yankees (unfortunately, he’s probably lost ten more dealing with Arod in New York).  Fun fact: the Marlins paid Miguel Cabrera (.339 BA, 26 HR, 114 RBI), Hanley Ramirez (.292 BA, 17 HR, 51 SB), and Josh Willingham (.277 BA, 26 HR) a combined total of $1 million this season.  Can someone file criminal charges for something like that?  Isn’t that in the Constitution?  Do the Marlins have the Cuban Mafia handling their contract negotiations?  This team is the real-life equivalent of the Indians in Major League I, where the owner is trying so hard to suck, yet the players continue to some how pull out a decent season.  Cabrera is definitely Pedro Cerano, I can live with Dontrelle as Willie Mays Hayes (for a pitcher, he does kinda hit like Mays and run like Hayes), and I like Girardi strapping back on the catcher’s gear and playing Tom Berringer’s character.  I would continue on with a paragraph bashing owner Jeffrey Loria further, but there will be much more time for that.


Most Likely to Handle Annual Budgeting For the U.S. Government: 

’12 Red Sox

If you would have asked me which team was the least effective spender of the past decade, I would have been jumping up and down in my seat like those crazy dudes in sports betting commercials.  This is my LOCK OF THE CENTURY, the New York Yankees are the most irresponsible team ever assembled!!!  However, just like those sweaty, red-faced idiots on TV, I would have been wrong.  And now that I know the answer is the 2012 Red Sox, I feel foolish.  I should have guessed that this train-wreck of a team would have been in the running.  $173.2 million input, 69 win output.  That’s good for $2.510 million per victory.  That’s a U.S. government number if I’ve ever seen one. 


Most Likely to Be Schizophrenic: 

The Marlins

In all seriousness, I am doing Jeff Loria a huge favor by suggesting he’s schizophrenic.  It actually implies that he is trying to do a good job, but he is just mentally incapable of doing so.  This is far better than the (much more likely) alternative that he simply doesn’t give a shit about the Marlin’s franchise, fans, players, or employees.  I picture Loria’s secret lair, with intricate spreadsheets and elaborate flowcharts covering the walls, decoding secret messages from Bud Selig and uncovering devious plots by the Rays to take over the South Florida market, and then Mrs. Loria walking in and seeing that it’s all a figment of his imagination.  
Before the infamous ’06 team, the Marlins spent $60.3 million in ’05.  That's over a 400% drop in payroll.  And then, in 2012, after hoodwinking everyone into thinking he was actually trying with a $118 million payroll, Loria sold off the entire team mid-season to get to his current payroll of $36 million.  That's over a 300% drop.  Seriously, can Bud Selig get this over with and 5150 Jeff Loria?  Or just make the Marlins a Triple-A team?  I refuse to believe that you can run an organization like this and get away with it outside of fiction.  Or politics.


Most Likely to Be Involved in a Ponzi Scheme: 

Just Pick Any Met’s Team 

Pretty self explanatory if you look at owner Fred Wilpon’s Wikipedia page.


Most Likely to Be the Subject of Moneyball II: 

The Tampa Bay Rays

Ray’s GM Andrew Friedman is one of the most under-appreciated people in the game of baseball.  For some reason, manager Joe Madden seems to get all of the credit for the miraculous turnaround of the Ray’s franchise (it must the awesome glasses), and Friedman remains the mysterious Wizard of OZ character behind the curtain.  Yet, no other team can match his track record of minimal dollars yielding maximum wins.  Not the A’s (10-year average: $726k per win).  Not even the ridiculous Marlins (ave: $631K per win).  Over the past ten seasons, the Rays have won an average of 81.8 games per season at an unfathomable $554k per win.  And those numbers are still short-changing Friedman’s genius, as he has only been at the helm for the past eight of those seasons.  His personal numbers?   85.1 wins per season at $584k per win.  
When opposing GMs look down at their cell phone and see Friedman’s number, it has become more of a pants-shitting occasion than when Billy Beane calls.  Through some kind of strange alchemy, Friedman pulls off moves that look terrible at first, and then suddenly look like bank robberies.  As of ’08, the Ben Zobrist for Aubrey Huff deal looked horrendous, as Huff was hitting .304 with 32 home runs for the Orioles.  In the five seasons since?   Huff is out of baseball, and Zobrist has made multiple All Star teams while racking up an absurd 30.6 WAR.   
In 2011, Friedman let Carl Crawford, the best player on the team and the face of the franchise, leave to join the divisional rival Red Sox.  Crawford’s per season averages before/after leaving the Rays:



G
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
SB
BA
OBP
SLG
WAR
Before
137
85
164
24
12
12
66
45
0.296
0.337
0.444
3.9
After
78
43
79
18
4
6
31
11
0.266
0.303
0.416
0.5


But wait, it gets even more one-sided.  Crawford was making an average of $3.92 million per year with the Rays, and has made an average $18.12 million the past three years.  Oh yeah, and he’s owed another $82.5 million over the next four seasons.  Go fuck yourselves, Dodgers.  
Friedman’s heist de jour?  James Shields for Wil Myers.  And, as Shields opened up this season putting up more All Star caliber numbers and Myers was still in the Minors, I once again found myself second-guessing Friedman.  Since?  Shields has been solid, but not world-changing (6-7, 3.08 ERA, 1.254 WHIP), while Myers is well on his way to locking up the Rookie of the Year and looks like a star of the future.  Forget the players, someone needs to test Andrew Friedman for performance enhancing drugs.  
         For his efforts, the Rays will be the spotlighted team in my remake of Moneyball II: How to Actually Advance in the Playoffs (ouch, I'm sorry A's fans. That one must have hurt).  And, sticking with Moneyball tradition, I am casting Hugh Jackman to play Friedman.  Because, as everyone learned in the first Moneyball movie, all nerdy baseball GMs are also ridiculously charasmatic and good looking.  And to play the role of Madden?  I’m breaking any sense of continuity and casting Phillip Seymore Hoffman again, as any opportunity to cast PSH in any role should be always utilized.  



Key: A's - Marlins - Rays - Dodgers - Red Sox - Yankees



Individual Awards


The “Have You Hired Scott Boras Yet?” Award:  

Craig Kimbrel

Short of saving babies from burning orphanages and creating a peaceful resolution in Israel, I’m not sure if there’s much more Craig Kimbrel could have done over past four years:


W
L
ERA
SV
IP
H
BB
SO
WHIP
WAR
13
6
1.41
123
203.2
109
77
350
0.913
8.6


Rookie of the Year?  Check.  All Star game every eligible year?  Check.  Un-hittable fastball?  Disgusting off-speed?  Check and check.  Combined with the fact that he’s made $1.6 million total over that span, and Kimbrel has been one of the most valuable players in baseball, dollar-for-dollar.  
Obviously, Mike Trout would have been the easy choice for this award, but that motherfucker gets everything, so I decided to mix it up with Kimbrel.  Also, the fact that Mariano is (supposedly) retiring, means that the title of best closer in baseball, which has been thoroughly on lockdown in pinstripes for the past 17 years, will be moving to Kimbrel’s mantle.  He becomes arbitration eligible next season, so it will be interesting to see how much of a raise he will get.  


The “Thank God You Hired Scott Boras” Award: 

Mark Teixeira

Seriously, the Yankee’s accountants must have the routing number to Scott Boras’s bank memorized by now.  And Mark Teixeira should be thanking his lucky stars that this is the case.  In the summer ‘08, I picture Boras sitting Tex down and having a very serious conversation.  Ok, Tex, so you’re a free agent at the end of this season, and here’s what we’re going to do.  I’m going to get you traded to a playoff team, you’re going to go nuts for two months, then I’m going to leverage that into a retarded contract with one of the New York teams.  Then, you can basically hang out, get little nagging injuries, and live out the rest of your life in style. Trust me, I pulled this one with Beltran, if the Yankees don’t bite, the Mets will for sure.  
Anyways, Boras managed to get the Yankees to agree to 8 years, $180 million, and here are his before/after per season averages:



G
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
BA
OBP
SLG
WAR
Before
151
94
165
37
2
34
113
74
0.290
0.378
0.541
5.2
After
122
75
120
27
1
28
87
11
0.266
0.303
0.416
2.7


And he’s on the hook for another three years, $67.5 million.  Thank god for Scott Boras.


The “You Need to Fire Your Agent and Hire Scott Boras” Award:  

Evan Longoria

Here’s a rule of thumb for all MLB players:  if Andrew Friedman puts a piece of paper in front of you to sign, you probably shouldn’t do it.  Keep in mind, this is a man who somehow got Ben Zobrist for 4 years, $18 million, with team options for the fifth and sixth year.  He’s like a Moroccan carpet salesman who somehow gets you to buy six full-length carpets when you don’t even have six rooms in your apartment.  He’s a gypsy who gambles with you and lets you win a couple times before getting you to bet big, then takes every dollar to your name.   
Friedman served up another Friedman-special with Longoria’s recent contract extension of 10 years, $136.6 million.  I realize the lunacy of saying a nine-digit contract is a ripoff, but it is.  Longoria is a Gold Glove corner infielder, entering into his prime, who has put up an average 650 Plate Appearance WAR of 7.4 up to this point.  If Boras was his agent, he would have burned the entire Ray’s organization to the ground before signing anything less than $18-20 million per season.  This was the man who got fucking Oliver Perez $12 million a year for god’s sake.  I must admit, I have a personal motivation here, as I would love nothing more than to witness the dogged ferocity of a Boras-Friedman standoff.  The unstoppable force meets the immovable object.  Who would win?  It’s like the sporting finance version of the  hypothetical Lebron vs. Jordan one-on-one game.  However, in the end, we all know this deal would never come to fruition, as Boras would just end up going to Magic Johnson and crew.  Hey, Magic, what about Longoria for 12 years, $300 million?  Hmmmm...fuck it, why not?


Conclusion

Major League Baseball needs to grow a pair and institute a salary cap.  They have taken positive strides with the luxury tax, but the prevalence of additional revenue streams, the most crucial of which are multi-billion dollar TV contracts, for big market teams makes the pain of the tax minimal (see the Dodgers, Yankees, and Red Sox).  Additionally, a salary floor would prevent bumbling idiots like Jeff Loria from cutting down to a $14.9 million payroll and throwing the entirely league out of whack.  These are not unreasonable requests.  In fact, I’m sure sure that one could do the math, in terms of the level of both the ceiling and the floor, and determine what level would keep the overall pool of money at relatively the same size.  A preliminary suggestion?  What about a floor of $75 million and a cap of $150 million?  That way, fans of small market teams could be assured that their team would be fielding a watchable squad, and fans of big market fans could still be assured that there will be ample funds to throw around in the offseason.  The goal is to protect against the outliers.  The teams who are gaming the system.  Choosing money over skill.  And taking away from the entertainment of the sport. 

3 comments:

  1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  2. Cody, first off, awesome blog. I hope you remain unemployed for a while...

    Few things I thought were interesting. The Red Sox award as the most reckless spenders is a little misleading. While dollar value per win is a valuable metric, it doesn't take into account the high variation in Win/Loss caused by often unpredictable injuries. A better metric would be active roster salary per win, which is obviously much more tedious to calculate. The Red Sox had quite a fair number of injuries that year, Youk, Ellsbury, Ortiz to name a few (while not nearly as injury struck as the Dodgers this year).

    Also, the MLB does need a hard salary cap, a much steeper luxury tax, or a combination of the two (like the NBA, which I prefer). Maybe once Bud finally passes the torch. Regardless, it would be interesting to see how strongly $ spent per year on salary correlates to championship teams (I'm sure someone somewhere has researched this...). Just briefly looking over the past 10-15 years in the MLB, it appears that the majority of champions have relatively high salaries.

    Just some thoughts. Keep up the great stuff.

    Also, your article on Barry was spot on.

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  3. All great points. Crazy shit happens. Players get hurt. The Red Sox example is incredibly misleading this way - I mean, look at what they've done this year with those guys back in the lineup. But, like you said, it would take FOREVER to do that. And I'm cranking on of these out everyday, so I do not have that kind of time haha. Also, like you said, there's a big difference between winning regular season games and winning it all, and it sure seems like high budget teams always win the big one (ask A's fans).

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