What is a Hall of Fame Career? Trying to Pinpoint Tim Lincecum's Place in Baseball History

Although his career trajectory in 2011 seemed destined for Cooperstown, Tim Lincecum has suddenly hit a wall.  Admittedly, he is only 29 years old, and he has a lot of years ahead of him, but assuming that he will never return to his ’08-’09 level when he won back-to-back Cy Young’s, what is Tim Lincecum’s place in the pantheon of baseball?

The question of Lincecum’s Hall of Fame status is integrally tied a deeper, and much more divisive, philosophical issue in baseball.  That is, what exactly a “Hall of Fame career” is.  If it is defined by he-who-shines-the-brightest, then Lincecum is a lock to get in.  However, if it is defined by he-who-shines-the-longest, then he still has a lot of work to do.  And, in all probability, he won’t reach the necessary milestones to get in.  As we stand today, Lincecum’s stats through his seven year career are as follows:

W	L	W%	IP	H	BB	SO	ERA	WHIP	Total WAR	Ave. WAR
84	66	0.560	1334.0	1141	518	1444	3.44	1.244	22.9	3.27

And, when you factor in his two Cy Young Awards, two World Series rings, four All Star teams, and one no-hitter, quite a career it is.  Superficially, one can read this stat line as a young pitcher, entering into the prime years of his mental and physical development, making a solid case for Hall of Fame.  Furthermore, he is a media darling who has gotten tons of coverage and hasn’t done anything to piss off the writers.  These facts shouldn’t matter but they do (ask Gary Carter).  However, anyone who has watched Lincecum as of late knows that he looks like a shell of his former self, and that’s where the difficulty comes in when projecting further into his career.  What started off as one of the most promising careers in recent memory has regressed into a disastrous past two seasons.  Here are the aggregated stats splitting the illustrious start to Lincecum’s career from the past two seasons:

	W	L	W%	IP	H	BB	SO	ERA	WHIP	Total WAR	Ave. WAR
’07-’11	69	41	0.627	1028.0	842	379	1127	2.98	1.188	25.6	5.12
’12-’13	15	25	0.375	306.0	299	139	317	5.00	1.431	-2.7	-1.35

Brutal by any definition of the word.  

Keep in mind, WAR is a stat that varies from source to source.  I used, Baseball-Reference for these figures, but if you use ESPN, Lincecum’s aggregate WAR over the past two years is a staggering -3.1.  That is the lowest total of any pitcher in the Major Leagues. Which brings up the question, can one be a Hall of Famer if, at any point in their career, they were arguably the worst pitcher in baseball?  Or maybe a better question is, are there any other comparable players that we can use as precedent to judge the mercurial career of Tim Lincecum against?  I bring this up mainly due to the fact that I made a Sandy Koufax comparison in order to argue in favor for Lincecum’s Hall of Fame bid the other day.  My point was that Koufax only really had six quality seasons in his career, yet he is unanimously considered a legitimate Hall of Famer:

	W	L	W%	IP	H	BB	SO	ERA	WHIP	Total WAR	Ave. WAR
Lincecum	84	66	0.560	1334.0	1141	518	1444	3.44	1.244	22.9	3.27
Koufax	165	87	0.655	2324.1	1754	817	2396	2.76	1.106	53.2	4.4

Obviously, it was an embarrassingly poor comparison on my part.  Koufax blows Lincecum out of the water in just about every metric besides K/9.  I'm sorry Sandy.  I forgot how ridiculous you were.

So, if not Koufax, then who?  I searched for pitchers who had multiple Cy Young Awards and a World Series Ring, yet had mediocre career numbers, and I found two other pitchers who are much more comparable.  Denny McLain and Bret Saberhagen:

	W	L	W%	IP	H	BB	SO	ERA	WHIP	Total WAR	Ave. WAR
McLain	131	91	0.590	1886.0	1646	548	1282	3.39	1.163	20.9	2.09
Saberhagen	167	117	0.588	2562.2	2452	471	1715	3.34	1.141	59.1	3.69

Both of these examples are interesting, each for their own reasons.  First off, what they have in common: neither are in the Hall of Fame.  Already a bad sign for Lincecum.  Now for the particulars, starting with McLain.  In 1968, the so-called “Year of the Pitcher,” McLain had one of the all-time great seasons, with a 1.96 ERA, 28 complete games, 336.0 innings pitched, and a psychotic 31 wins.  Thus, he became the only 30 game winner since Dizzy Dean.  If you’ve never heard of Dizzy Dean, it’s because you have a life, and because he pitched a million goddamn years ago.  The 30 win benchmark is pretty much an unreachable figure in today’s game so there’s a good chance that McLain will be the last player ever to reach it.  For his spectacular effort, McLain won both the MVP and the Cy Young.  Then, as an encore, he won the Cy Young again in 1969 (side note: he was chosen to start the All Star game in ’69 but decided to bail, opting for a dental appointment instead.  This was a precursor to the lunacy that soon followed).  It seemed as if McLain was destined to become one of the all-time greats, however, the wheels immediately fell off the bandwagon following the ’69 season, as it turned out he was a bit of a loon with a penchant for gambling and criminal activity.  McLain’s off-field exploits (this whole article could be about how crazy Denny McLain was, and still is, but I don't feel like writing 10,000 words, so look it up yourself if you're interested), and arm injuries, took away from his on-field brilliance and his chance at the Hall went up in flames.

Now, let’s look at Saberhagen.  If we could hop into the Delorean and go back to ’89 to watch the 25 year-old Saberhagen hoist up his second Cy Young Award, we would undoubtedly think we were witnessing the coronation of a future Hall of Famer.  He already had 92 wins and a World Series ring with the Kansas City Royals.  And, as we all know, winning a ring with the Royals is less likely than finding Jimmy Hoffa.  With the Holy Grail in his pocket.  In Atlantis.  Unfortunately, an injury plagued second half of his career (and a spooky habit of only playing well in odd-numbered years) would never allow Saberhagen to reach his ’84-’89 form.  Even still, Saberhagen’s career WAR of 59.1 is good for 60th place all time amongst pitchers.   Yet, when his name came up on the ballot in 2007, he only on 1.3% of the vote.  He still can get in through the Veteran's Committee, but unless those old geezers suddenly learn what WAR is, it's extremely unlikely.

Both McLain and Saberhagen have better stats than Lincecum.  They all have the same number of Cy Young Awards.  They all have a ring (obviously, Lincecum has two).  And they all have a no-hitter.  Therefore, there is no way Lincecum is getting in unless he can manage to get his career back on track in a big way.  However, the overall point of this piece isn’t to shit on Tim Lincecum for not reaching his full potential, but rather, to show that his downfall shouldn’t even be surprising.  Lincecum is generously (hilariously?) listed at 5’11” 170 lb, and is notorious for racking up high pitch counts, not icing his arm, and having one of the most unorthodox deliveries in the game.  He was a classic example of a pitcher whose career arc would be quick.  Take a look at Ron Guidry, or even Saberhagen for that matter (who was 6’1” but only weighed 160 lb).  Furthermore, the number of sub-six foot pitchers in the Hall of Fame since WWII?  One.  Whitey Ford (although, Pedro will soon be making it as well).  It is a position where size equals longevity.  And longevity equals the Hall.  If you look at guys like Verlander (6’5” 225 lb)  or CC Sabathia (6’7” a billion pounds?), their bodies are conducive for 200+ IP year after year after year.  When I watch Lincecum pitch, I’m half expecting his arm to tear off at the shoulder and fly twenty rows deep over the backstop.  So, as a Giants fan, although it is difficult for me to see Lincecum’s career decline, I still feel a huge amount of gratitude to have seen his brilliance for as long as I did.  And, if somehow he turns it back around, I will gladly eat my words (literally, I will print these pages out and consume them).